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论著·临床研究 | 更新时间:2025-08-13
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创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄的影响因素及列线图预测模型的构建
Influencing factors for the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury and the construction of nomogram prediction model

广西医学 页码:968-974

作者机构:黄爱华,本科,主管护师,研究方向为创伤后急性肾损伤。

基金信息: 江苏省自然科学基金面上项目(BK20231049)

DOI:10.11675/j.issn.0253⁃4304.2025.07.09

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  • 参考文献

目的 探讨创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄的影响因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法 回顾性分析106例创伤后急性肾损伤患者的临床资料,根据患者谵妄发生情况分为谵妄组和非谵妄组。比较两组患者的临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归模型分析创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄的影响因素。基于影响因素构建创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄的列线图预测模型并进行可视化。采用受试者工作特征曲线、Hosmer⁃Lemeshow检验及校准曲线分别评价模型的诊断效能、区分度和准确性。结果 谵妄组患者的年龄、急性生理与慢性健康评估Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)评分、机械通气时间、苯二氮䓬类药物使用占比、肾脏替代治疗时间、血尿素氮、凝血酶原时间(PT)长于或高于非谵妄组(P<0.05)。年龄、APACHEⅡ评分、机械通气时间、使用苯二氮䓬类药物、肾脏替代治疗时间、血尿素氮、PT是创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄的影响因素(P<0.05)。基于上述影响因素构建的列线图预测模型预测创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄的灵敏度为0.89(95% CI:0.73~0.97),特异度为0.71(95% CI:0.60~0.83),曲线下面积为0.85(95% CI:0.76~0.94);拟合优度检验结果显示该模型区分度较高(χ2=0.822,P=0.365);校准曲线显示,校正曲线和理想曲线基本相符,准确性较高。结论 年龄、APACHEⅡ评分、机械通气时间、使用苯二氮䓬类药物、肾脏替代治疗时间、血尿素氮、PT与创伤后急性肾损伤患者发生谵妄有关,上述因素构建的列线图预测模型有助于早期识别谵妄的发生。

Objective To explore the influencing factors for the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury, and to construct a nomogram prediction model. Methods A retrospective analysis on clinical data from 106 patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury was conducted. According to the occurrence status of delirium among patients, patients were divided into delirium group or non⁃delirium group. The clinical data of the two groups were compared, and the multivariate Logistic regression model was adopted to analyze the influencing factors for the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury. A nomogram prediction model for the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury was constructed based on its influencing factors and the nomogram prediction model was used for visualization. The receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer⁃Lemeshow test and calibration curve were employed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency, discrimination, and accuracy of the model, respectively. Results Age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) score, duration of mechanical ventilation, proportion of benzodiazepine use, duration of renal replacement therapy, blood urea nitrogen, and prothrombin time (PT) of patients in the delirium group were longer or higher than those in the non⁃delirium group (P<0.05). Age, APACHEⅡ score, duration of mechanical ventilation, use of benzodiazepins, duration of renal replacement therapy, blood urea nitrogen, and PT were the influencing factors for the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury (P<0.05). The sensitivity of the nomogram prediction model constructed based on the aforementioned influencing factors for predicting the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.73-0.97), specificity was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.60-0.83), and an area under the curve was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.76-0.94). The results of goodness of fit test revealed that the discrimination of the model was favorably high (χ2=0.822, P=0.365). The calibration curve indicated that the calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve, exerting a favorably high accuracy. Conclusion Age, APACHEⅡ score, duration of mechanical ventilation, benzodiazepine use, duration of renal replacement therapy, blood urea nitrogen, and PT are associated with the occurrence of delirium in patients with post⁃traumatic acute kidney injury. The construction of a nomogram prediction model helps to early identify the occurrence of delirium.

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