Objective To explore the medical service capacity and its optimization pathways in 11 prefecture‑level cities of Guangxi, providing precise decision‑making references for the construction of Healthy Guangxi and the high‑quality development of medical services. Methods Based on relevant medical service indicator data from the Guangxi Statistical Database, variables were selected within the technology‑organization‑environment (TOE) framework, including technological dimensions (medical infrastructure, medical institution burden), organizational dimension (medical service personnel), and environmental dimension (medical service demand). Data calibration, necessary condition testing, and sufficiency configuration analysis were conducted using fsQCA 4.0 software and Microsoft Excel software. Results No single condition (medical infrastructure, medical institution burden, medical service personnel size, or medical service demand intensity) constituted a necessary condition for high or low medical service capacity. Two configurations were identified for high medical service capacity: (1) “personnel‑demand‑driven” type (core conditions containing sufficient medical service personnel and strong medical service demand, and no mandatory requiements for medical infrastructure and institution burden), represented by Nanning, Liuzhou, and Guilin. (2) “Facility‑institution burden‑demand‑driven” type (core conditions concerning well‑established medical infrastructure, reasonable medical institution burden, strong medical service demand, and medical service personnel as a peripheral condition), represented by Beihai. Two configurations were also identified for low medical service capacity: (1) “high burden‑facility deficit‑demand deficit” type (core conditions including excessive medical institution burden, and deficits in medical infrastructure and medical service demand), represented by Wuzhou and Hechi. (2) “Facility‑personnel dual deficit” type (core conditions with respect to deficits in both medical infrastructure and medical service personnel, and light medical institution burden and insufficient medical service demand as peripheral conditions), represented by Chongzuo. Conclusion The improvement of medical service capacity in Guangxi is not the result of a single factor, but rather the product of configurational coupling across technological, organizational, and environmental dimensions. Attention should be paid to the synergistic and interactive effects among key factors. Differentiated strategies should be implemented according to the configurational characteristics of each city: cities with high medical service capacity should strengthen resource radiation, while cities with low capacity should target infrastructure and talent shortages. By enhancing workforce development and demand‑side management, optimizing facility allocation and burden control, and avoiding the risk of “dual deficits”, the overall medical service capacity across Guangxi can be improved in a balanced manner.